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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-07-16 16:49:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 445 WTPZ21 KNHC 161448 CCA TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 CORRECTED 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-16 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 the center of Felicia was located near 15.0, -121.6 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 10

2021-07-16 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 121.6W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 121.6 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur by late tonight or early Saturday, with a westward motion expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, and Felicia could become a category 4 hurricane later this morning. Slow weakening is expected to begin by tonight, and continue through the weekend and into early next week. Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-07-16 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160859 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Tiny Felicia has continued to intensify tonight. Earlier SSMIS microwave imagery showed that the hurricane was maintaining a closed circular eyewall and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye on infrared satellite have continued to cool below -70 C. Scatterometer data from an ASCAT-A pass at 0418 UTC also indicated the small size of Felicia's wind field, with peak 34-kt wind radii only extending roughly 50 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC were both T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was T5.4/100 kt. A blend of these intensity estimates support a current intensity of 100 kt, making Felicia the first major hurricane in the East Pacific basin this year. Felicia now appears to be moving slightly south of due west with the latest estimated motion at 260/8 kt. Now that the strongest deep-layer ridging is positioned northwest of the hurricane, a west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Afterwards, a narrow ridge axis shifts back north of Felicia, and the cyclone is expected to resume a more due westward motion between 24 to 72 hours. In the latter portion of the track forecast, the hurricane will come under the influence of a stronger mid-level ridge located north of Hawaii, resulting in another leftward turn by the end of the forecast period. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement for the majority of the forecast. The official NHC forecast is a touch south of the previous track and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Additional short-term intensification is forecast while Felicia remains in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear between 5-10 kt and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between 27-28 C. Thereafter, mid-level humidity values are forecasted by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance to drop below 50 percent as SSTs also gradually decrease. However, both deep-layer (200-850 hPa) and mid-level vertical wind shear are expected to remain light and easterly through at least the next 72 hours. Light easterly shear in combination with marginally warm SSTs are common environmental factors associated with major hurricanes that develop annular characteristics, and these storms are known to weaken at a slower than typical rate. To account for this possibility, the intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening between 24 to 48 hours which is above the majority of the intensity guidance but lies closest to CTCI (COAMPS-TC). Afterwards, Felicia's weakening rate is forecast to increase as SSTs cool further, and northwesterly vertical-wind shear impinges on the cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is closer to the mean of the intensity guidance and is near the HCCA intensity consensus aid at 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.1N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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