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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2021-07-16 10:47:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160847 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 26(26) 63(89) 3(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 57(59) 7(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 34(34) 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 69(77) 5(82) 1(83) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 7(49) X(49) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 15(54) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-16 10:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FELICIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING FORECASTED... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 the center of Felicia was located near 15.1, -121.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 9

2021-07-16 10:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 764 WTPZ31 KNHC 160847 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FELICIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING FORECASTED... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 121.0W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general west-southwest motion is expected over the next 24 hours with a turn back to the west expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is now category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is forecast today. This will be followed by a very gradual weakening trend through the end of the weekend. Felicia is a small tropical cyclone, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-07-16 04:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates of around 100 kt. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one, bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

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