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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-07-17 11:00:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170859 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 Felicia remains an impressively compact major hurricane on satellite imagery tonight. The storm possesses a circular, clear, and warm (10-15 C) eye surrounded by an equally symmetrical central dense overcast (CDO) with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 C. In addition, a 0535 UTC GMI microwave pass showed a singular closed eyewall, with only limited outer banding outside of the inner core. The 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt respectively, while the UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was holding steady at T5.7/107 kt. Since that time, cloud top temperatures surrounding the eye have cooled a bit more during the diurnal max, so the initial intensity is held at 115 kt, in agreement with the higher TAFB estimate. The hurricane has maintained more of a west-southwest motion over the past 6-12 hours at 255/8 kt. This motion is expected to gradually bend back westward or west-northwestward over the weekend into early next week as a narrow mid-level ridge axis shifts back to the north-northeast of Felicia. In the latter part of the forecast period, a stronger deep-layer ridge north of Hawaii is expected to become the primary steering feature, leading to a Felicia turning back west-southwestward with gradual acceleration. The track guidance has shifted a tad further north early on, and has continued to speed up the forward motion near the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little more poleward in the first 60 hours, closer to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, and is faster after 72 hours. The forecast track still lies roughly between the previous forecast and the aforementioned track consensus aids. Felicia currently has the structural characteristics of an annular hurricane, featuring a warm eye and cold circular CDO with little additional banding beyond the eyewall. Even though sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) slowly decrease over the next 36 hours as Felicia remains embedded in a dry mid-level relative humidity environment, the modest easterly vertical wind shear (around 5-kt) forecast over the cyclone will likely prevent dry-air entrainment that could disrupt the stable eyewall structure. Thus, the intensity forecast for the first 36-48 hours remains above the majority of the guidance and it would not be surprising to see Felicia maintain its category 4 intensity longer than forecasted in the short-term. After 60 hours, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance shows a sharp increase in northwesterly vertical winds shear as the hurricane tracks along the 26 C SST isotherm. These more unfavorable environmental conditions will likely lead to significant disruption of Felicia's tiny inner core. The weakening rate has been increased a bit more in the latter portion of the latest NHC intensity forecast, falling near the mean of the intensity guidance and HCCA consensus aid by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.6N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 14.9N 126.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.7N 130.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 15.8N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 15.6N 134.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 14.7N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 13.8N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Felicia Graphics
2021-07-17 10:53:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Jul 2021 08:53:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Jul 2021 08:53:18 GMT
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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-07-17 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 615 FOPZ11 KNHC 170851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 92 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 125W 50 70 9(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 125W 64 27 11(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 48(50) 36(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 15(15) 40(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 10(63) X(63) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) X(28) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 6(37) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-17 10:51:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A COMPACT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Jul 16 the center of Felicia was located near 14.5, -123.9 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 13
2021-07-17 10:51:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A COMPACT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 123.9W ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 123.9 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the west at a similar speed is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the weekend with a faster rate of weakening expected by early next week. Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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