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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 25A
2017-08-26 19:48:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261748 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 ...HARVEY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM INLAND OVER TEXAS... ...EXTREMELY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 97.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by National Weather Service Doppler radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 97.6 West. Harvey is moving slowly toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little motion is anticipated during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2017-08-26 17:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 15:40:33 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-26 17:27:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 15:27:44 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Graphics
2017-08-26 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 14:57:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Aug 2017 15:25:56 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 25
2017-08-26 16:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 261452 TCDAT4 Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017 Harvey has been inland for about 12 hours and weakening is under way. Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased to 65 kt, and that is the intensity used in this advisory. Since Harvey is over land, a continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model. However, if a portion of Harvey's circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here. The hurricane is moving very slowly toward the north at about 2 kt. Harvey is embedded within very light steering currents, and global models keep this weak flow in place for the next several days. Based on this pattern, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. The only agreement among the track guidance is that Harvey is certainly not going anywhere fast. This slow motion of the cyclone is expected to exacerbate the potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least through the middle of next week. Please note that hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) have been discontinued due to the degradation of Harvey's center on radar. Key Messages: 1. While Harvey's winds have begun to weaken, life-threatening hazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast. 2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the Texas. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/0000Z 29.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/1200Z 29.2N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0000Z 29.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1200Z 28.7N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1200Z 29.5N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1200Z 30.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila/Lapenta
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