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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 35

2021-10-01 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 010845 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 61.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 61.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.8N 62.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.7N 61.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.2N 59.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.0N 57.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N 55.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 40.1N 51.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 47.7N 44.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 50.1N 38.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 61.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Sam Graphics

2021-10-01 07:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 05:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 03:22:56 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)

2021-10-01 07:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SAM A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Sam was located near 25.6, -61.6 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 936 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 34A

2021-10-01 07:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010538 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 200 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SAM A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 61.6W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 61.6 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is anticipated later today, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane into Saturday, with additional weakening forecast later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 936 mb (27.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas later today, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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