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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-30 10:56:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 08:56:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 09:22:54 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 31
2021-09-30 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 113 WTNT43 KNHC 300856 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam is a very impressive hurricane in infrared satellite imagery this morning. The 25-nm-wide eye remains very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of convection with cloud tops around -65C. The outflow is also well established in all quadrants. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that performed three eyewall penetrations overnight has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 139 kt in the northeastern, southeastern, and eastern eyewall, and peak SFMR surface winds of 119 kt. These data still support an initial wind speed of 125 kt. Sam's minimum pressure has fallen a few millibars since the NOAA aircraft mission last evening. The latest estimated pressure from dropsonde data gathered by the Air Force is 937 mb. NOAA buoy 41044 has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 68 kt with a gust to 86 kt in the northeastern eyewall of Sam. The buoy has also reported peak seas of 40 ft. Sam could still strengthen a little today as it continues to move over a warm ocean eddy and remains in low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall cycles however, could cause some fluctuations in intensity. After 48 hours, gradually decreasing SSTs and ocean heat content are likely to cause a more definitive weakening trend, with a faster rate of weakening likely after day 3. Sam is forecast to complete its extratropical transition by day 5, and it is predicted by the global model guidance to become a large and powerful extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Sam is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. Sam will move northwestward, and then northward around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that time, Sam is predicted to turn northeastward between the ridge and a large mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. As that trough lifts northeastward by day 3, Sam is forecast to continue on a northeastward heading, but it is not likely to accelerate as much as a typical recurving tropical cyclone over the north-central Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent agreement through 72 hours, but there is increasing spread after that time. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models have come into somewhat better agreement at days 3 through 5, and the NHC track forecast is near the consensus of those typically reliable models. Although the core of Sam is forecast to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.0N 60.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 28.4N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 31.1N 61.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 33.5N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 35.5N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 38.7N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 44.3N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2021-09-30 10:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 300854 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-30 10:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL HURRICANE SAM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 30 the center of Sam was located near 21.5, -59.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 31
2021-09-30 10:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300853 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 59.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 59.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 60.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N 61.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.1N 61.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N 59.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N 52.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 44.3N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 59.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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