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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 32A
2021-09-30 19:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301753 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 200 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DANGEROUS HIGH SURF TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 60.5W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 60.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-30 16:57:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 14:57:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 14:57:28 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 301455 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 301455 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam continues to look quite impressive on satellite images, with a 20-25 n mi wide eye surrounded by very deep convection. The system's convective banding features and upper-level anticyclonic outflow also remain well-defined, with particularly strong outflow to the northwest and north. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed significantly since earlier this morning, so the advisory intensity will remain at 125 kt. Interestingly, aircraft observations show that Sam has been a little stronger than indicated by satellite-derived intensity estimates, which underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later today. Sam should continue to move over waters of high oceanic heat content and within a low-shear atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours or so. Thus, it could still strengthen a little today and tonight. By 48 hours, decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should lead to a gradual weakening trend. Around day 5, global model fields suggest that Sam will be merging with a baroclinic zone and transition into a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model prediction. The hurricane is moving a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 320/11 kt. During the next couple of days, a gradual turn toward the north is likely as Sam rounds the western end of a large subtropical anticyclone over the eastern and central Atlantic. Thereafter, Sam is forecast to move generally northeastward in the flow between the anticyclone and a trough near Atlantic Canada. The NHC forecast is very similar to a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF predictions, with a little bit of smoothing around days 3-4. Although the core of Sam is forecast to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.6N 60.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.4N 60.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 27.2N 61.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 30.2N 61.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 32.7N 60.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 34.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 36.9N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 40.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 44.5N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-30 16:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM EXPECTED TO CAUSE LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 30 the center of Sam was located near 22.6, -60.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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