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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 30
2021-09-30 04:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 760 WTNT33 KNHC 300252 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 ...SAM GAINING STRENGTH AND SIZE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 58.4W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Sam. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for the island on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 58.4 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north and northeast is anticipated by Friday night. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to pass well to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight, and pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week, with more significant weakening anticipated over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or so, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-09-30 04:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300252 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SAM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.9N 59.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.1N 60.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 60.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 59.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-29 22:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Sep 2021 20:53:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Sep 2021 20:53:03 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-09-29 22:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 108 WTNT43 KNHC 292051 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 Sam continues to exhibit a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery, although there is some asymmetry of the coldest-topped convection around the center. The hurricane is also maintaining numerous banding features with well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane showed peak 700 mb fight-level winds of 130 kt in the northeast quadrant which, using the standard reduction, corresponds to maximum surface winds of 117 kt. However, the maximum SFMR-observed surface winds were 103 kt. Based on these data, with more emphasis on the flight-level winds, the current intensity estimate is held at 115 kt. The aircraft also measured a minimum central pressure of 945 mb by dropsonde. Since the hurricane is forecast to remain in an environment of low vertical shear and to remain over warm waters through 48 hours, Sam could restrengthen a little more during the next day or so. Since the Hurricane Hunters reported a concentric eyewall, short-term strengthening may be curtailed until the eyewall replacement cycle completes. Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening is likely due to cooler SSTs and increasing shear. The official intensity forecast is in very good agreement with the latest corrected consensus prediction. Sam will likely be close to extratropical transition around day 5. The initial motion is still northwestward, or 310/8 kt. During the next few days, Sam is likely to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a large subtropical high pressure system centered over the eastern Atlantic. A turn to the north-northeast and northeast is expected later in the forecast period as Sam begins to encounter the flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric trough moving through Atlantic Canada. The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement through 72 hours, including the time that Sam passes by Bermuda. At days 4-5 there is some divergence of the model guidance, apparently due to how Sam may interact with the trough. Most notably the ECMWF is a lot slower than the other global models suggesting that the trough will at least partially bypass it in that case. Not much change has been made to the previous official forecast, however, and the NHC track remains very close to the TVCN dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or so, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 57.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 21.2N 58.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.1N 60.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 28.3N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 31.0N 61.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 33.6N 59.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 37.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 42.0N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-29 22:50:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE SAM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 29 the center of Sam was located near 20.2, -57.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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