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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 301454 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 60.0W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 60.0W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.2N 61.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.2N 61.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.7N 60.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.9N 59.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.9N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 40.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 44.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 60.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 32
2021-09-30 16:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301454 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...SAM EXPECTED TO CAUSE LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 60.0W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 60.0 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-30 13:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 11:46:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 09:22:54 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-30 13:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INTENSE HURRICANE SAM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Sep 30 the center of Sam was located near 22.1, -59.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 31A
2021-09-30 13:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301144 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 800 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...INTENSE HURRICANE SAM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 59.5W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will continue to pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, and pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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