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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics

2014-07-04 05:10:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 03:02:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2014 03:05:48 GMT

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Hurricane ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2014-07-04 05:01:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 040301 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) X(35) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 50(64) X(64) X(64) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 45(76) X(76) X(76) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 65(71) 6(77) X(77) X(77) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 19(73) X(73) X(73) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) X(28) X(28) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 42(42) 45(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 85(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 50(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 17(17) 47(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 44(44) 20(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 45(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORTLAND ME 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CONCORD NH 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HYANNIS MA 34 X 39(39) 26(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) HYANNIS MA 50 X 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 67(67) 17(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 15(15) 28(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 19(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 1 27(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 16 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NORFOLK NAS 34 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NORFOLK VA 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NORFOLK VA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 25 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 64 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 13

2014-07-04 05:01:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040301 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt in the southeastern eyewall. The lowest reported central pressure was 976 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was increased to 85 kt. Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined 20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in infrared satellite imagery. Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the initial motion is now 035/16. A continued northeastward motion and acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours. The forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic. The forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the adjacent northwestern Atlantic. After that, Arthur is expected to undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia. After passing Nova Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North Atlantic. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 34.6N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 13

2014-07-04 05:01:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 040301 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...EYE OF ARTHUR ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 76.6W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE...ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND...AND ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE * ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR SHOULD PASS OVER THE COASTAL AREA OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 71 MPH...115 KM/H... AND A WIND GUST OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AND BUOY DATA IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THAT AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ONTO THE COAST NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW ENGLAND WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM EDT AND 300 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 13

2014-07-04 05:01:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 040301 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE...ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND...AND ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE * ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 76.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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