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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 16A
2015-10-02 01:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 012356 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN BATTERING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.5W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a west-southwestward or westward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of strongest winds of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday. Joaquin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been reported at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 931 mb (27.49 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of eastern Cuba through Friday morning. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Stewart
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-01 23:04:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 20:46:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 21:04:44 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-10-01 22:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012054 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 The earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt in the southwestern eyewall, with a subsequent 114-kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southeastern eyewall. The last central pressure extrapolated from the aircraft data was 936 mb. In addition, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS are now in the 115-127 kt range. Based on these data, the intensity was increased to 115 kt at 1800 UTC, making Joaquin a Category 4 hurricane. While this advisory will not increase the intensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraft arriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more during the next 12 hours or so as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the intensity in the 48-96 hour range, the new forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for a steady weakening during this period. Overall, the intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope. Joaquin has moved with a more westward component during the past few hours and the initial motion is now 235/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northward in 12-24 hours. The guidance after 48 hours has changed somewhat since the last advisory, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the east and lying closer to the ECMWF. In addition, the HWRF has made a big jump to the east and now shows an offshore track. These changes have pushed the consensus models farther eastward. The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - still calling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and turn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the track are likely. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well into Friday. 2. A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin over the next couple of days. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 23.0N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 24.4N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 28.4N 73.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 41.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-10-01 22:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 012045 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 4(25) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 2(21) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 2(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 3(24) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) 1(33) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) 1(24) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 9(11) 7(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GREAT EXUMA 34 80 16(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GREAT EXUMA 50 21 29(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GREAT EXUMA 64 9 19(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 38 50(88) 3(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) SAN SALVADOR 64 14 49(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-01 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 JOAQUIN MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 23.0, -74.4 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 936 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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