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How Climate Change Is Intensifying Hurricane Joaquin
2015-10-01 17:55:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Huffington Post: Joaquin, which strengthened into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane on Thursday and battered sparsely populated Bahamian islands, will strengthen in the next 12 to 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center reported. Its current path has it nearing North Carolina and Virginia on Sunday or Monday, but mid-Atlantic and Northeast states will experience minor to moderate flooding over the weekend regardless of whether the hurricane makes landfall. Joaquin's quickly progressing strength can be tied to unprecedented...
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-10-01 17:04:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011504 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a 117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus outflow is good in all directions. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today depending on how the models do (or do not) change. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or so will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands. 2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is still low, since there have been some large changes in the model guidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions remains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New England. It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the U.S. east coast. A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely not occur until at least Friday morning. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. It's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-01 17:01:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 14:58:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 15:00:45 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-10-01 16:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 011456 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 7(28) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 5(29) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 24(38) 3(41) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 3(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 2(22) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 6( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 2 7( 9) 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 41 48(89) 4(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GREAT EXUMA 50 4 35(39) 9(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GREAT EXUMA 64 1 19(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 34 71 25(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 13 61(74) 14(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) SAN SALVADOR 64 4 44(48) 19(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 24 6(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MAYAGUANA 64 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 15
2015-10-01 16:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING OVER SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 73.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas now including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in the central Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 73.9 West. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, with some fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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