je.st
news
Tag: joaquin
Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 14
2015-10-01 10:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010845 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BATTER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 73.7W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in the central Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 73.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast in the next day or so, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (27.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of the central Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the northwest Bahamas within the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-10-01 10:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 010843 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 8(35) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 4(34) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 5(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 7(36) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 23(49) 4(53) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 2(23) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 20(43) 3(46) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) 2(31) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 2(22) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 7( 8) 22(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) 1(37) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 2 11(13) 15(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) ANDROS 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 46 41(87) 10(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GREAT EXUMA 50 3 40(43) 22(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GREAT EXUMA 64 1 21(22) 18(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 18 29(47) 29(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAN SALVADOR 64 4 18(22) 27(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 13 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MAYAGUANA 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-10-01 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010843 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 100SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 74.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N 74.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.8N 74.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 36.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 39.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 73.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-01 07:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 05:32:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2015 03:05:51 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
joaquin
hurricane graphics
Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-01 07:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH 120 MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 23.5, -73.4 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
joaquin
at1al112015
Sites : [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] next »