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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

2018-09-14 16:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOYCE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Joyce was located near 31.6, -44.6 with movement S at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 8

2018-09-14 16:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 775 WTNT35 KNHC 141441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 44.6W ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. Joyce is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h). Joyce is forecast to slow its forward motion and turn eastward by tonight, and then accelerate northeastward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Joyce is then forecast to weaken to a depression Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2018-09-14 16:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 787 FONT15 KNHC 141441 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 8

2018-09-14 16:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 262 WTNT25 KNHC 141441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 44.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 44.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 44.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.3N 44.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.0N 42.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.2N 41.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.6N 38.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.0N 32.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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