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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-09-15 10:43:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 889 WTNT25 KNHC 150843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 42.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 42.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.7N 40.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.9N 37.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.6N 34.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.7N 31.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 26.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 42.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-15 04:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 02:42:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 03:40:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-15 04:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 013 WTNT45 KNHC 150241 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Joyce continues to look better organized on GOES-16 satellite imagery and the convective canopy has expanded. However, recent microwave data reveals that the cyclone is still tilted to the northeast due to nearly strong southwesterly wind shear. The most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. Despite the shear, most of the intensity guidance shows very slight strengthening over the next 12 to 24 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory at most forecast times. Persistent shear and decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause Joyce to weaken beyond that time, likely dissipating entirely shortly after 72 h. A few models, most notably the HWRF and UKMET, persist the cyclone a little beyond that, but only as a remnant low. The storm has turned east as expected, and the initial motion is now 090/5 kt. As the larger Helene begins to accelerate away, a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northeastward and speed up. A turn back toward the east, or possibly even east-southeast is possible by the end of the forecast period as Joyce weakens and follows the northern periphery of a subtropical high over eastern Atlantic. Very little change has been made to the track forecast through 48 h, but it has been adjusted to the south at 72 h, following the latest consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 31.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 32.2N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 33.2N 39.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 34.4N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 35.1N 33.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 28.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-15 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE STILL STRENGTHENING... ...NOW MOVING EASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Joyce was located near 31.6, -43.6 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 10
2018-09-15 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 370 WTNT35 KNHC 150239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...JOYCE STILL STRENGTHENING... ...NOW MOVING EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 43.6W ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 43.6 West. Joyce is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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