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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-14 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 373 WTNT45 KNHC 140833 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 There has been little change in the convective organization of Joyce overnight. The system continues to produce bands of convection over the northeastern portion of the circulation, but the center remains exposed due to shear. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent TAFB satellite estimate. Joyce is still moving southwestward or 210 degrees at 7 kt. Joyce is being steered in that direction around the larger circulation of Helene to its east-southeast. Once Helene passes east-northeast of Joyce later today, Joyce should turn eastward, then begin to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the weekend. The global models have trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction as well. Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the cyclone within the next day or two, which should prevent Joyce from strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for little change in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the shear increases further. Both the GFS and ECMWF dissipate Joyce by day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and become post-tropical before that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 32.1N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 31.7N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 32.7N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 34.0N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 36.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-14 10:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Joyce was located near 32.1, -44.9 with movement SSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 7
2018-09-14 10:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 273 WTNT35 KNHC 140833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 44.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 44.9 West. Joyce is moving toward the south-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Joyce is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by tonight, and then accelerate northeastward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Joyce is expected to weaken early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-09-14 10:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 272 WTNT25 KNHC 140833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 44.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 44.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 44.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.7N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.7N 42.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.5N 34.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-09-14 10:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 250 FONT15 KNHC 140833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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