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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-14 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 02:40:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 03:40:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-14 04:38:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 466 WTNT45 KNHC 140238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Beginning around 6 hours ago, convection redeveloped near the center of Joyce. Since then, the cyclone has become displaced from the upper-level low, and an ASCAT overpass around 2330 UTC showed that Joyce has a small radius of maximum winds of around 30 n mi. Based on these factors, it appears Joyce has become a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of just over 30 kt, but its possible the instrument slightly under-sampled the maximum winds of the small cyclone. In addition, convection near the center increased somewhat after the time of the ASCAT pass. The initial intensity has therefore been held at 35 kt, making Joyce a tropical storm. Joyce has accelerated a little toward the west-southwest, perhaps more than previously anticipated. As a result, the forecast has been shifted south at most forecast hours, but not quite as far as the consensus models would suggest. There is otherwise no change to the track forecast reasoning, and Joyce is still expected to move slowly generally southward while Helene passes to the east until accelerating toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough in a day or two. Despite the recent, and perhaps temporary, resurgence of convection, no change has been made to the intensity forecast. None of the guidance shows much intensification, and the NHC forecast continues to rely on a blend of the intensity consensus and the GFS and ECMWF, which only show gradual weakening throughout the forecast period. Considering that the cyclone has only gradually weakened to this point, this still seems like a reasonable forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 32.9N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 31.7N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 32.2N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 33.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-14 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Joyce was located near 32.9, -44.4 with movement SSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-14 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 172 WTNT35 KNHC 140237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...JOYCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 44.4W ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Joyce is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Joyce is forecast to gradually turn toward the northeast on Friday and then accelerate northeastward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Joyce is now a tropical storm. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-09-14 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 171 WTNT25 KNHC 140237 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.4W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.4W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.7N 44.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 43.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.3N 42.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.0N 37.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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