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Summary for Subtropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-13 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Joyce was located near 33.7, -43.7 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-13 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 398 WTNT35 KNHC 131437 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 43.7W ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 43.7 West. The storm is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the south-southwest and then toward the south is expected later today through early Friday. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, Joyce could transition to a tropical storm in the next day or two. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-13 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 456 WTNT25 KNHC 131435 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.1N 44.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.9N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 43.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-13 11:00:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:00:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 09:40:24 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-13 10:58:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 024 WTNT45 KNHC 130858 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Joyce is still co-located with an upper-level low, and the most recent TAFB intensity classification was still a subtropical type. Furthermore, there has been no discernible increase of convection near the center of the cyclone, and cloud tops have actually warmed over the past few hours. Therefore, Joyce is still classified as subtropical for this advisory. Since the cyclone hasn't changed much in organization, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on the TAFB subtropical intensity estimate, but this is still possibly generous. Joyce's struggle to maintain deep convection bodes poorly for its intensification prospects, considering that the shear is forecast by the global models to increase considerably over the next few days. SHIPS, LGEM, and the global models continue to show Joyce changing little in strength over the next few days until the system dissipates by early next week. The HWRF and HMON models are still outliers in showing substantial intensification, but even these models aren't quite as aggressive in strengthening Joyce as they were previously. The NHC forecast continues to favor the statistical guidance and is just below the intensity consensus at most forecast hours because it is frankly hard to believe that Joyce will become a hurricane in 48 h based on its current appearance. Joyce is still moving slowly southwestward with an initial motion of 220/5 kt. The global models remain in fairly good agreement that Joyce will move slowly southwestward for the next day or so as the storm remains in light steering flow. A turn toward the south will likely occur as Helene approaches from the southeast, followed by a quick turn northeastward once the larger tropical cyclone passes by. Joyce should then accelerate quickly northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough before dissipating southwest of the Azores. Little change was made to the official track forecast which is near the middle of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 33.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 33.3N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 32.6N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 32.1N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 34.6N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 37.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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