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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-23 16:48:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231448 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Mario's quest as a tropical cyclone is over. The low has produced only a few small areas of intermittent convection during the last day or so, but with insufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Mario is now a remnant low and this is the last advisory. The remnant low will move slowly generally northward or north-northwestward for the next day or so as it slowly spins down. It will likely open up into a trough near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 25.0N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-23 16:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GAME OVER... ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Mario was located near 25.0, -114.3 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Public Advisory Number 25
2019-09-23 16:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 ...GAME OVER... ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 114.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 114.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). Mario will likely continue to move generally northward at a slightly slower forward speed for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated through Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2019-09-23 16:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 231447 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Forecast Advisory Number 25
2019-09-23 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 231446 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 114.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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