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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-21 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:41:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:38:03 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-21 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO WEAKENING AND LACKING THUNDERSTORMS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 19.6, -110.5 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 18
2019-09-21 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENING AND LACKING THUNDERSTORMS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 110.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 110.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-21 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212039 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Deep convection has become even more displaced from the center of Mario, and the closest thunderstorms are now more than 60 n mi to the southwest of the cyclone's exposed center. The intensity of the weakening tropical cyclone is now 40 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. Strong easterly shear affecting Mario is not expected to decrease much for the next day or two, and it seems unlikely that the cyclone will be able to recover. By the time the shear does relax early next week, Mario will be moving over much cooler waters, which should inhibit the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Further weakening is therefore forecast, and Mario is now expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours. Given current trends in convection, it's possible that Mario could become post-tropical sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is merely an update of the previous advisory. The tropical storm has drifted slowly northward so far this afternoon but should resume a north-northwestward track by tonight. The models are still in fairly good agreement that Mario will then be steered in that general direction for a few days after that. It is still within the realm of possibility that the cyclone could reach the Baja California peninsula, but it will likely become a remnant low before it does so. Little change was made to the official track forecast, which is very slightly east of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-09-21 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 212039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 24 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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