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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-23 10:30:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230830 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Mario earned an extra life yesterday but has just about reached its time limit. Satellite images indicate that an earlier burst of deep convection has dissipated, with only a couple of small disorganized blobs left over. If there is no further convective re-development, Mario will likely be declared a remnant low later this morning. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates. The depression is nearing cool waters and a drier, more stable environment. These conditions should be enough to cause Mario to continue to gradually weaken and open up into a trough within a day or so. The latest intensity and track forecasts are based on the consensus guidance, tilted toward the global models which generally do well at this stage of the tropical cyclone life cycle. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 24.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2019-09-23 10:23:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230823 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Depression Mario Graphics
2019-09-23 10:22:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:22:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:22:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Advisory Number 24
2019-09-23 10:19:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 230819 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-23 10:17:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Mario was located near 24.3, -113.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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