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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-22 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220254 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the possibility this is a bit generous. While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear, it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively moist air mass. Thus, the lack of convection is a little surprising. The intensity forecast will show little change in strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst developing near the center during the diurnal maximum. After that time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous forecast. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed by a more northward motion near the 72 h point. Once again, little change was made to the forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-22 04:54:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 20.3, -110.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 19
2019-09-22 04:54:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220253 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 110.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 110.8 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later tonight or on Sunday. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2019-09-22 04:54:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220253 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-09-22 04:53:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 220253 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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