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Tropical Depression Mario Public Advisory Number 22
2019-09-22 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 222039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 112.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 112.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center will move inland over the south-central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario should degenerate into a remnant low later overnight. The low is expected to dissipate by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2019-09-22 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 222039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression Mario Graphics
2019-09-22 17:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:45:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:45:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-22 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221444 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 After being devoid of deep convection since yesterday, a couple of thunderstorms have formed just to the southwest of the cyclone's center. Although this barely qualifies the system to retain tropical cyclone status, advisories are being continued for the time being. However, Mario should degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours or so. The weakening low is expected to turn northward and move over the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday, and dissipate later that day. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.0N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 24.8N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 26.3N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 27.9N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-22 16:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 22.0, -111.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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