je.st
news
Tag: sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-11 05:15:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 03:15:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 03:40:27 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 47
2018-10-11 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110241 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This evening's satellite presentation depicts a rather ragged and elongated banding eye-like feature with fragmented curved bands encircling the periphery of cyclone. The subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, however, still yield an initial intensity of 55 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that the westerly shear has increased to 15-20 kt, and the Decay-SHIPS as well as the global models indicate that the shear magnitude will increase further to near 50 kt prior to landfall. This inhibiting upper wind pattern along with slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence some further weakening as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday as a depression. At the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further degenerate into a post-tropical weak low over the southwestern United States. The intensity forecast is based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/14 kt, and this general motion is forecast through the entire 72 hour period with a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be approaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night. There is continued high confidence in the forecast track as the available large-scale and hurricane models are clustered tightly together through 72 hours. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.0N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0000Z 34.4N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2018-10-11 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110240 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) 67(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 12(12) 28(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 1 28(29) 46(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 25N 115W 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 120W 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 25N 120W 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-11 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Sergio was located near 20.0, -121.5 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 47
2018-10-11 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 121.5W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 121.5 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days. Sergio is forecast to reach the Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] next »