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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-05 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 the center of THREE was located near 21.9, -88.1 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THREE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-06-05 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051457 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression THREE Public Advisory Number 1
2016-06-05 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051457 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida. STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Serive forecast office. WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-04 23:06:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2016 20:31:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2016 21:03:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-06-04 22:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042030 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Bonnie has lacked significant deep convection for several hours, and the compact cyclone mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed winds near 30 kt in the southeast quadrant of the circulation, and the initial intensity is held at that value. Strong wind shear, dry air, and cold waters should prevent the return of significant thunderstorm activity, and Bonnie will likely degenerate into a remnant low tonight. Most of the models show the remnant low dissipating late Sunday or Monday. The depression has been moving east-southeastward, 110 degrees, at about 12 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies. A general eastward to east-southeastward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected until Bonnie dissipates. The official track forecast is nudged a little to the south of the previous one, to account for the more southerly initial position and motion, and lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 35.0N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 34.5N 62.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 34.0N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 33.3N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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