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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 11
2016-05-30 10:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 ...BONNIE MOVING ALONG THE COASTLINE NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... ...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 79.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move near or along the South Carolina coast today and the North Carolina coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across east-central Georgia, central and eastern South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina with isolated maximum amounts near 4 inches. Farther north, the moisture from Bonnie will produce additional rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic region into southern New England through Wednesday. Total rainfall of more than 8 inches has already occurred over large portions of south-central South Carolina. SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-05-30 10:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300849 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 79.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 79.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.3N 79.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.4N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.7N 75.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 37.3N 72.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-05-30 04:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300231 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Tropical Depression Bonnie has been meandering over the Low Country of South Carolina this evening. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have been shrinking in coverage and are primarily confined to the western side of the circulation over portions of South Carolina, with some outer bands over eastern North Carolina. The circulation of the system has become a little less defined this evening with some evidence of multiple vortices, and the overall appearance of the cyclone is quite ragged. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, which is a little higher than reports from the nearby surface observations. Bonnie has not moved much since the previous advisory, and the latest initial motion estimate is a south-southeastward drift, or 160/1 kt. The depression should move slowly northeastward or east-northeastward on Monday when a shortwave trough approaches the cyclone. After that time, a slightly faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is predicted while Bonnie moves along the northwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system. This steering pattern should take the depression, or its remnants, across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next few days and then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean. The new track forecast has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus. Land interaction during the next few days combined with persistent southerly shear, dry air, and cool waters along the forecast track should prevent Bonnie from restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a steady state system through the forecast period, but Bonnie is likely to lose its convective organization and become a remnant low in about two days, or perhaps sooner. Another possibility, however, is that the circulation of the system opens into a trough before it becomes a remnant low. The primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy rainfall. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have been reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 32.8N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 31/0000Z 33.5N 79.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 01/0000Z 34.4N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 35.4N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z 37.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-05-30 04:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 300231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0300 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 9(13) 5(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 7 8(15) 4(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 6 7(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-30 04:30:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE MEANDERING NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun May 29 the center of BONNIE was located near 32.8, -80.1 with movement SSE at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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