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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-05-29 17:06:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 14:44:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 15:03:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-05-29 16:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 291444 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Most of the deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone became separated from the center overnight, and Bonnie weakened to a tropical depression before reaching the south-central coast of South Carolina. Aircraft data indicate that Bonnie made landfall just east of Charleston near the Isle of Palms around 1230 UTC. The tropical cyclone has continued to move faster than expected, with an initial motion estimate of 360/8 kt. The global models insist that a reduction in forward speed will occur today while the cyclone moves around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. As a result of the faster forward motion, the NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward accordingly, and now shows the center moving farther inland during the next day or so. After 48 hours, a slightly faster northeastward motion is expected to begin. The updated NHC track is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus. Bonnie is forecast to weaken some during the next 12 to 24 hours, but little change in strength is expected after that time since a portion of the circulation could be over water. A track farther inland than anticipated would result in a faster rate of weakening, and Bonnie would become a remnant low sooner in this scenario. The primary impact from Bonnie will continue to be locally heavy rainfall, which is occurring over much of eastern Georgia, and portions of the Carolinas. These rains will gradually spread northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 33.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 33.6N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 34.0N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 34.1N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 34.1N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 35.3N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 36.5N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 38.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-05-29 16:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 291444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 3(20) X(20) 1(21) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 1(18) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 1(18) 1(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 4(24) X(24) 1(25) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 7(21) 4(25) X(25) 1(26) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 6 9(15) 5(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) FLORENCE SC 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 8(13) 6(19) 5(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 7 7(14) 6(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) 1(27) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 9 7(16) 4(20) 2(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 8
2016-05-29 16:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 291444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 ...BONNIE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected today. A slow northeastward motion is expected tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to remain inland over northeastern South Carolina through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast today, followed by little change in strength tonight and Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches from east-central Georgia into central to eastern South Carolina, and 1 to 3 inches farther north across southeastern North Carolina. Heavy rain is expected to develop well north of Bonnie's main circulation into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast with total accumulations of 1 to 2 inches through Monday and isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches. WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force are possible along the south-central coast of South Carolina today. SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-05-29 16:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 291443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.8W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.8W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.6N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.0N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 34.1N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.1N 78.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.3N 76.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.5N 74.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 38.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 79.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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