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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 01:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri May 27 the center of TWO was located near 28.8, -75.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 1A
2016-05-28 01:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 272336 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 800 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 75.1W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 75.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. A reduction in forward speed is expected by Saturday night as the system nears the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches from the upper coast of Georgia through eastern South Carolina and into southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2016-05-27 23:03:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 May 2016 20:50:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 May 2016 21:03:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-05-27 22:57:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 272057 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low pressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, indicated that the system has developed a well-defined closed circulation. With this afternoon's increase in convection near the center, the system is now a tropical cyclone and advisories have been initiated. The strongest reliable SFMR surface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the northeast of the depression is forecast to remain oriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hours or so, which should keep the depression moving in a general west-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however, a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of the south-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge, resulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and a sharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching the coast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone is forecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coast of North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in good agreement on this track scenario, with only small differences in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensus model TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of the ECMWF model. The depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surface temperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so before moving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are 27C-28C. Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be moving into weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result is expected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior to landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS model through 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 28.5N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 29.5N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 32.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-27 22:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri May 27 the center of TWO was located near 28.5, -74.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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