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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri May 27 the center of TWO was located near 29.0, -75.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 2
2016-05-28 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 75.9W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 75.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest and then toward the north are expected on Saturday night and Sunday as the system nears the coast in the warning area. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Saturday night or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-05-28 04:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 280231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 2(18) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 3(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 2(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 9(20) 1(21) 2(23) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 8(24) 2(26) 2(28) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 6(24) 1(25) 1(26) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 7(27) 1(28) 1(29) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 8(25) 6(31) 1(32) X(32) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 8( 8) 16(24) 8(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 11(11) 24(35) 6(41) 3(44) 1(45) X(45) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 9( 9) 21(30) 5(35) 3(38) X(38) 1(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) 3(29) X(29) 1(30) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-05-28 04:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 280230 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0300 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 75.9W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 75.9W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 75.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.0N 77.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.3N 78.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.2N 79.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 34.5N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 75.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2016-05-28 01:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 May 2016 23:37:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 May 2016 21:03:33 GMT
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