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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2016-05-28 07:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 05:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 03:03:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 07:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat May 28 the center of TWO was located near 29.5, -76.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 2A
2016-05-28 07:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280532 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 76.4W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 76.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 hours. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest and then the north are expected on Saturday night and Sunday as the system nears the coast in the warning area. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Saturday night or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is expected within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2016-05-28 05:06:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 02:33:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 03:03:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-05-28 04:36:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 280236 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the past few hours, and the associated deep convection is confined to a somewhat linear band north and northwest of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, consistent with a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The biggest positive factor for the cyclone intensifying in the next 12 to 36 hours is its movement over the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are above 27C. However, moderate to strong vertical shear and dry air argue against significant strengthening. Given these competing factors, the official forecast continues to show modest intensification during the first 24-36 hours. This forecast is closest to the SHIPS model. After 36 hours, a track over cooler shelf waters and an increase in shear should result in slow weakening, with the system expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days. The initial motion estimate is 300/10, with the depression currently situated between a mid/upper-level low over the northwest Bahamas and a narrow mid-level ridge extending east of the North Carolina coast. These features should result in a continued west- northwestward track for the next 24 hours. After that time, both of these synoptic steering features weaken while a broad mid/upper- level trough moves into the eastern United States. This pattern suggests that the cyclone will slow down and gradually turn northward and then northeastward in 2-3 days. Through day 3 the NHC track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and lies a bit to the right of the previous official forecast, especially at 48 and 72 hours. After that time the global model spread is larger. The ECMWF shows the remnant low moving more quickly northeastward, while the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean show a motion back toward the west at days 4-5. The NHC forecast late in the period still favors the ECMWF track, but is slower given the latest GFS/GEFS trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 29.0N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 30.0N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 31.3N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 32.2N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 32.7N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 33.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 34.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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