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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-05-28 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 280836 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 The depression has not become any better organized since yesterday. The convection is located to the northwest of the low-level center due to southeasterly shear, and it is also limited due to the fact that the cyclone has been moving over cooler waters. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt based on continuity. The depression has a small opportunity to strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, although the shear is not favorable for intensification. This is consistent with most of the intensity guidance, which do not show any notable increase of the winds. In between 24 and 36 hours, the circulation will be interacting with land, and weakening should begin. By 72 hours or sooner, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low. Although the low-level center is difficult to locate on satellite imagery, the best estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at 12 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer the cyclone on the same track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a short wave trough is forecast to approach from the west and force the cyclone to turn to the east-northeast at a very slow pace. The NHC forecast is an extrapolation of the previous one, and it follows the trend of the GFS and the ECMWF models very closely. The NHC forecast brings the center of the cyclone near the South Carolina coast between 24 and 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 29.9N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 31.0N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION RIGHT ON TRACK BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat May 28 the center of TWO was located near 29.9, -77.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 3
2016-05-28 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280835 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...DEPRESSION RIGHT ON TRACK BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 77.0W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 77.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected today and Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the depression this morning. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-05-28 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 280835 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 77.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 77.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 76.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 31.0N 78.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.4N 79.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 77.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-05-28 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 280835 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 3(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 2(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 2(20) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 6(17) 2(19) 2(21) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 8(21) 3(24) X(24) 2(26) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 8(21) 4(25) 1(26) 2(28) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 10(11) 6(17) 8(25) 4(29) 1(30) 1(31) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 14(15) 9(24) 9(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 22(23) 10(33) 6(39) 1(40) 1(41) 1(42) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 16(16) 12(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) 4(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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