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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-19 13:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Oct 19 the center of Twenty-Seven was located near 25.8, -55.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-19 13:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 55.5 West. The depression is stationary and little overall motion is expected through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion should continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and be at or near hurricane strength by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-19 13:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 410 WTNT22 KNHC 191153 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1200 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 55.5W AT 19/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 55.5W AT 19/1200Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 40SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 60SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 90SE 90SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-15 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2020 02:38:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2020 03:23:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-15 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory. Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated intensity is now 25 kt. Further weakening is expected due to cool waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 hours. Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to its southwest as much as it was earlier today. The current motion is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected to slow down further until the time it dissipates. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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