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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-10-08 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080842 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-08 10:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Norbert was located near 13.2, -106.3 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 11
2020-10-08 10:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080842 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.3W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little movement is expected today, with a west-southwestward motion forecast to begin tonight into Friday. A slightly faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected by this weekend. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-08 10:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080841 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-08 04:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:41:23 GMT
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