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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-10-13 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 132036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Depression Delta Graphics
2020-10-10 16:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:47:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:47:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Delta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101441 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this afternoon. The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta or its remnants generally northeastward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models. Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DELTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 the center of Delta was located near 33.1, -90.8 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Delta Public Advisory Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Delta Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...DELTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 90.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Delta was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 90.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across western and northern Mississippi today and into the Tennessee Valley tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Delta is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area on Sunday. Greenwood, Mississippi, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h), and an automated station near Monticello, Arkansas, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible this afternoon over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. RAINFALL: For eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern to Central Appalachians, which could lead to flash, urban, small stream, along with isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and western Georgia through early tonight. SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office for additional information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last Public Advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
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