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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-05 22:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 105.4W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly developed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slowing of forward speed. The depression is expected to meander through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible over the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-10-05 22:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052053 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 9(21) 7(28) 1(29) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 7(19) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-05 22:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 028 WTPZ24 KNHC 052050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-05 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 The last couple of legs of the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission and recent METOP-A and C scatterometer passes support lowering Gamma's initial intensity to 30 kt for this advisory. Conventional satellite imagery reveals that the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours and is on its way to becoming a post-tropical remnant low. Strong southerly shear and a stable, relatively dry surrounding air mass should prevent any significant convective regeneration as the system approaches the northern coast of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula tomorrow. After the remnants of Gamma makes landfall, dissipation is likely to occur Wednesday as larger, Tropical Storm Delta approaches the Yucatan Channel. The initial motion is estimated to be southwestward, or 230/4 kt. A continued southwestward or west-southwestward motion is expected through Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern Mexican State of Yucatan. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of this morning's package and is based on the various multi-model consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in areas of flash flooding. 2. Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.1N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-10-05 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 052033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MERIDA MX 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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