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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-13 22:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Oct 2020 20:39:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Oct 2020 21:24:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-13 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Low pressure associated with the remnants of Norbert has become well-organized today, with persistent convection near and north of the estimated low-level center. Partial ScatSat and ASCAT-B passes near of this system suggest the low-level circulation is closed, and 25-30 kt scatterometer winds are noted in the northeast quadrant of the low. Additionally, earlier surface observations from Socorro Island, Mexico and ship observations from the Nathaniel B Palmer research vessel reported northwesterly winds on the backside of the system. Together, all this information supports the conclusion that the remnants of Norbert have redeveloped into a tropical depression. The initial intensity for Norbert is set at 30 kt based on the recent ASCAT-B overpass and a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from SAB. Norbert is only forecast to be a short-lived depression given the increasingly hostile environmental conditions it is expected to face during the next 24-48 h. While the vertical wind shear is currently weak, it is forecast to quickly increase by Wednesday courtesy of a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The majority of the guidance shows little or no intensity change, and the official NHC intensity forecast calls for Norbert to remain a 30-kt depression during the next 24 h. This should be followed by weakening as Norbert transitions to a remnant low by 48 h due to 20+ kt of deep-layer shear and decreased oceanic heat content. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. Norbert is currently moving to the northwest at 11 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h as the depression moves between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the upper low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward, Norbert's forward speed will slow as the depression is drawn more northward before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.8N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-13 22:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT REDEVELOPS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 the center of Norbert was located near 19.8, -111.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 20
2020-10-13 22:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 ...NORBERT REDEVELOPS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 111.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 111.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a slower forward speed as Norbert turns northward on Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Norbert is forecast to dissipate by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-10-13 22:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 132036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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