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Tropical Depression Delta Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 101441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 90.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100Z, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 101441 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-10 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 02:39:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 03:31:49 GMT
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tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-10 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before showing dissipation by 60 h. Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the track model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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depression
Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-10-10 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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