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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 27.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 28.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 920 FONT12 KNHC 190836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2021-09-19 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 02:32:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 03:22:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-19 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190231 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression. The depression has a small area of deep convection near its center and curved bands on its north and east sides. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to break down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak. Not surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time, but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those models near the consensus aids. Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time frame. However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-19 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 190231 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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