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Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics
2021-09-19 17:00:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:00:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:00:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-19 16:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191454 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 The low-level center of the depression was exposed on visible satellite imagery this morning but recently a new burst has formed. Since the morning scatterometer passes missed the depression, the intensity is held at 30 kt based on consensus T-2.0 values from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 330/12. The cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast track, and the new prediction lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track models. Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so, with wind shear forecast to drop off later today. Thus, the official forecast calls for strengthening during the next 24 hours, and is close to the lower half of the intensity guidance envelope, near the weaker global models. This forecast could be conservative, since SSTs will be near 27C and mid-level atmospheric moisture will be enough to support intensification. By 36-48 hours, the southwesterly shear will increase, which should end the opportunity for strengthening, and will likely cause slow weakening. The models hold onto this system through the 5 day period, but it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if the shear is too much for the system to handle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.2N 28.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-19 16:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 191451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-19 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 the center of Seventeen was located near 13.2, -28.8 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 28.8W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 28.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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