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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-09-15 01:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142338 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 94.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located by Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. Nicholas is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn is expected over Louisiana on Wednesday. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday or by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Depression Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible this evening along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These conditions should diminish tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through tonight across southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-15 01:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 23:38:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 21:22:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Olaf Graphics
2021-09-11 04:49:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Sep 2021 02:49:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Sep 2021 03:28:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-09-11 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus aids. A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone. The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in 12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual dissipation over the open east Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-09-11 04:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 110239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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