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Tropical Depression Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-15 04:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 150235 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 7 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 7 5(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 the center of Nicholas was located near 30.0, -94.1 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150234 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 94.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nicholas Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 94.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 94.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east is expected tonight through Wednesday night, followed by a northward drift on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more hours along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These conditions should diminish later tonight and Wednesday morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible tonight through early morning from southeast Louisiana to southwest Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-15 01:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 the center of Nicholas was located near 29.9, -94.4 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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