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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-09 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091452 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has recently moved offshore the coast of Georgia. Buoy 41008 located off the Georgia coast recently recorded 1-min sustained winds of 29 kt with gusts as high as 33 kt. Thus, 30 kt is maintained as the intensity for this advisory. Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to become even stronger. The strong shear should prevent restrengthening and is likely to strip away any remaining convection by Friday or Friday night. Mindy is forecast to become post-tropical Friday evening. Most of the global models suggest that the cyclone will open up into a trough in 36-48 h, but it is possible this could happen sooner, as surface observations already show that easterly winds on the north side have become quite weak. The NHC forecast calls for dissipation Friday night, which is sooner than the previous advisory. Mindy continues moving quickly to the east-northeast or 065/18 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The main adjustment to the NHC track is to show a slightly faster motion toward the east-northeast at the 24-36 h points. Key Messages: 1. Mindy will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 31.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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Tropical Depression Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-09 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 091452 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Mindy (AT3/AL132021)
2021-09-09 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF MINDY MOVES OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 31.5, -80.7 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-09 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY MOVES OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 80.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 80.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a decrease in forward speed on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mindy is expected to become a remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur near the coast of southeastern Georgia for another few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-09 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091451 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 80.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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