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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 3

2021-09-09 10:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and over the western Atlantic by late this morning or early this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected on Friday, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low by Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the southeastern Georgia through this morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-09-09 10:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics

2021-09-08 13:57:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 11:57:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 09:29:08 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)

2021-09-08 13:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 6:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.7, -107.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 3A

2021-09-08 13:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081156 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 107.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. It could then become a short-lived hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is expected on Friday when the system moves over colder waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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