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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-07 04:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020 306 WTNT42 KNHC 070237 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020 The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking the past few days west of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed enough convective banding for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. A 06/2345Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated surface wind speeds of 30-31 kt north of the center, which are supported by a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB at 07/0000 UTC. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04kt. The center has been jumping around somewhat due to small, brief convective bursts that then dissipate, leaving small swirls rotating around the mean circulation center. However, the latest ASCAT data showed a much better defined overall circulation, especially in the inner core wind field region, so the forward motion should stabilize fairly soon. The depression is expected to remain caught in weak steering flow for the next 5 days, so only a slow westward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a west-northwestward motion by later Monday and Tuesday that will continue through the remainder of the 120-h forecast period. Possible track forecast complications could develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model guidance envelope. The depression is only forecast to slowly strengthen for the next 4 days or so due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air. By day 5, increasing southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of a large upper-level low that is forecast to cut off north of Puerto Rico is expected to induce gradual weakening. However, both the timing of the development of the low and its west-southwestward motion will determine if sufficient shear will prevent further strengthening after 96 h; a slower formation of the low and/or a slower retrograding motion would result in at least less weakening. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows an average of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 17.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics
2020-09-07 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 02:33:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 03:24:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-07 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 6 the center of Seventeen was located near 17.0, -41.5 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-07 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 41.5W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into Monday. By late Monday and Tuesday, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected, and that motion should continue into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-07 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 070232 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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