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Tropical Depression Julio Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-07 04:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 595 WTPZ45 KNHC 070241 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Julio Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio is losing organization. A small area of deep convection remains near the assumed center, which is best identified by SSMIS microwave data a few hours ago. However, Socorro Island, located about 30 miles south of the center, never showed any westerly winds. While it is possible the system has already opened up into a trough, advisories are being continued on the assumption that the island missed the small system's circulation. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt due to the decay in overall satellite presentation. The depression is moving westward at a slower speed than before, roughly 11 kt. This motion is expected tomorrow at a slower speed as a ridge breaks down to the north of the cyclone. Afterwards, since the tropical cyclone is so small, a larger surface low to the southwest of the system seems likely to weaken Julio and then absorb the tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Thus the track forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, and the new intensity forecast is reduced as well. A plausible alternative scenario is that overnight scatterometer data will show that the system has already degenerated into a surface trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.4N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Julio (EP5/EP152020)
2020-09-07 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of Julio was located near 19.4, -111.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Julio Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-07 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 177 WTPZ35 KNHC 070241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Julio Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 ...JULIO DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 111.3W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julio was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 111.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further slow weakening is anticipated, and Julio is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Julio Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-07 04:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070240 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-07 04:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 1 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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