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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-07 04:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 874 WTNT22 KNHC 070231 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-05 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 14:41:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 14:41:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-05 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051439 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to become extratropical by Sunday afternoon. The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 37.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of Omar was located near 37.4, -57.3 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051438 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 57.3W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 57.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster north-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by early Sunday, and to dissipate by early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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