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Tropical Depression Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-17 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-17 04:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 122.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 122.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.1N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.5N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 122.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Josephine Graphics
2020-08-16 16:52:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 14:52:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 14:52:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161451 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Josephine Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Strong vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Josephine, with the exposed center continuing to race well ahead of the primary convective mass. A new burst of convection has developed a little closer to the center within the past couple of hours, but with the continued loss of organization the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. With strong shear forecast to prevail over the cyclone during the next few days, continued weakening is expected and Josephine will likely become a remnant low within 24 hours or dissipate by opening into a trough of low pressure. Although the shear could lessen somewhat in a few days, it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for the dissipation of the remnant low by 96 hours. Josephine jogged a bit westward overnight, but the longer term motion is 285/11 kt. The system is forecast to turn northwestward over the next 24-36 hours as the ridge over the western Atlantic weakens due to an approaching trough of low pressure. As the low- to mid-level trough moves offshore of the southeastern United States, this should cause Josephine or it remnants to turn northward on Tuesday. The updated track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory, primarily to more southward and westward initial position, however, it still lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.4N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-16 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 16 the center of Josephine was located near 20.4, -65.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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