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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 16:46:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TEN-E BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.7, -134.0 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 14
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...TEN-E BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 134.0W ABOUT 1700 MI...2735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 134.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn to the northwest then west at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a remnant low during that time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 4 12(16) 7(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-16 16:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 161445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 134.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 134.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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