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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-20 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 080 WTPZ43 KNHC 202033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite imagery indciates that Tropical Depression Eight-E is getting better organized, with the formation of a small central dense overcast and banding features outside of the central convection. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 30 kt from SAB, and recent scatterometer data indciate winds near 30 kt in the northwester quadrant. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt. The initial motion is 235/6, with the depression still being steered by a portion of the subtropical ridge building between it and Tropical Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with some increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This should be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest between 48-60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is again in the middle of the guidance and close to the various consensus models. The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the forecast, and given the seemingly-favorable environment it would not be a surprise if the cyclone strengthened more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 13.5N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight-E (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-20 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Jul 20 the center of Eight-E was located near 13.5, -120.4 with movement SW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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tropical depression
Tropical Depression Eight-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-20 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 120.4W ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 120.4 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better organized, and it is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Seven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-20 22:33:31| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2020
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depression
Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-20 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) X(23) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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