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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-22 04:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220236 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 The depression remains quite small in size and its cloud pattern consists of a compact central dense overcast and some convective bands on its west side. The latest satellite intensity estimates and a recent ASCAT pass support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A strengthening deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should cause the system to accelerate some toward the west or west-northwest during the next several days. This steering pattern should take the cyclone across the eastern Caribbean Islands and into the Caribbean Sea this weekend. The models are in fairly good agreement and there is high confidence in the track forecast. The intensity forecast is much trickier. The models continue to differ on the evolution of the depression, with the statistical-dynamical models and some of the hurricane regional models showing the system becoming a hurricane within the next few days. Conversely, the global models show little change in strength and even dissipate the system as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea. The global models seem to indicate that a combination of the cyclone's fast forward speed and associated shear, and dry air entrainment should prevent strengthening or lead to weakening. Given the large amount of uncertainty, only small changes were made to the previous prediction. This forecast lies a little below the consensus models giving slightly more weight to the global model solutions. It should be noted that small systems like Tropical Depression Seven are often difficult to predict as they are more likely to fluctuate in strength compared to larger cyclones. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 10.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 10.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 10.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 10.4N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 10.5N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 10.8N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 11.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 12.4N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 13.7N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-22 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 220235 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-22 04:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Jul 21 the center of Seven was located near 10.0, -41.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-22 04:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 41.3W ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 41.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. A faster westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-22 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220234 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 41.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 41.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 10.2N 42.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.3N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N 47.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.5N 50.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.8N 52.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 63.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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